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Photo by Tim Mowry

The dip netting season for red and king salmon on the Copper River at Chitina is tentatively scheduled to open June 4, with emphasis on the word “tentative.”

The openings at Chitina the last two years have been delayed because fish were late. The pre-season opening date is based on the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s sonar projections at Miles Lake, 70 miles downstream of Chitina.

Using data collected in previous years, the department estimates when and how many fish will pass the sonar. This year, biologists are projecting the first fish to hit the sonar May 16. Within a week, more than 10,000 fish a day are expected to be passing the sonar.

Biologists are hoping to get the sonar in place below Miles Lake early next week, said Steve Moffitt, area research biologist for commercial fisheries in Cordova.

The past two years, the salmon have been late and both commercial and personal-use fishing seasons have faced early restrictions in terms of fishing time. Last year, the pre-season opening date at Chitina was projected for June 2, but dip-netters weren’t allowed to drop nets into the water until June 9. In 2006, the projected opening was June 3 but the season didn’t open until June 9.

“Last year they were real late and the year before they were late,” area management biologist Mark Somerville with the Department of Fish and Game in Glennallen said.

Despite being late, the runs both years turned out to be well above average. Last year’s run was estimated at approximately 2.8 million fish, the third-highest on record for the Copper River.

Dip-netters can only hope for the same kind of seasons they enjoyed the past two years. Last year’s personal-use harvest at Chitina was approximately 129,500 salmon, the vast majority of which (125,000) were reds. It was the fifth-largest harvest since 1984 and the catch per permit was the second highest during that time period. The state issued 8,377 personal-use permits last year. In 2006, the overall harvest of estimated at 129,000, though the catch per permit was lower because the state issued more permits.

Dip-netters shouldn’t get their hopes up, though. Biologists are predicting this year’s run to be smaller than the previous two years. The preseason forecast for the red salmon in the Copper River is 1.5 million fish, which would be only half the size of last year’s phenomenal run. Commercial fishermen netted 1.9 million fish alone last year.

Moffitt pointed out that biologists’ pre-season projection last year was only 1.8 million fish, which turned out to be a million short, and was quick to point out that biologists weren’t projecting a run that big this time last year. The pre-season projection last year was for a sockeye run of 1.8 million.

“I am hoping my pre-season projection is wrong similar to last year,” he said.

Based on what biologists saw last year, however, that’s not likely. The number of 5-year-old fish, which make up to about 80 percent of the return, was higher than expected last year but the 4-year-old class wasn’t as strong the previous two years.

“Last year there weren’t a whole lot of 4-year-old fish, which means there won’t be a whole lot of 5-year-olds this year, Moffitt said.

The management goal for this year’s run is to get 615,000 fish past the Miles Lake sonar, Moffitt said. That’s an increase of about 20,000 fish, which is a result of slightly higher harvests by personal-use and subsistence fishermen, he said.

The department uses the average harvest for dip netters, subsistence fishermen and sport fishermen from the past three years to figure out how many fish need to pass the sonar to meet the needs of those users, in addition to the number of fish needed to reach the spawning grounds to produce adequate future runs.

“We’ll make adjustments to the commercial fishery as necessary to make sure we hit our in-river goal,” Moffitt said.

Dip-netters’ fishing time also is based on the number of fish passing the sonar and how it compares to pre-season projections. The more fish that pass the sonar, the more fishing time dip-netters get.

When biologists begin getting data on commercial harvests and sonar counts, they throw the pre-season projections out the window, Moffitt said.

“As soon as we start getting other information, we start making in-season adjustments,” he said.

The first commercial fishing opening is set for May 15 and will be only 12 hours. The department manages the commercial fishery conservatively for the first few openings because the harvest totals can be deceiving, depending on fishing and river conditions.

“A lot of times it’s really difficult to interpret that data,” Moffitt said. “If the river is not open really well, it’s hard to know if fish are moving consistently in to river.

“If (commercial fishermen) catch lots of fish, does that mean it’s a big run or does it mean they’re just not moving up the river? That’s our dilemma every year, what does that early harvest data mean? You really need that sonar data to really know what’s going on.”

Contact staff writer Tim Mowry at 459-7587.