Winter weather? Farmers' Almanac says 'Numb's the word!'
National Weather Service predicts warmer temperatures in Alaska
Published Sunday, August 24, 2008
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Stumble It!LEWISTON, Maine -- People worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers' Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S.
"Numb's the word," says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.
The almanac's 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder-than-average temperatures this winter, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.
"This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people," said almanac editor Peter Geiger.
The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions will likely have an unusually wet or snowy February, the almanac said.
In contrast, the usually wet Pacific Northwest could be a bit drier than normal in February.
Looking ahead to summer, the almanac foresees near-normal temperatures in most places. But much of the Southwest should prepare for unusually hot weather in June and July, while Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will get oppressive July heat and humidity.
The almanac - not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac which is 26 years older - attributes its forecasts to reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.
Weatherbee's outlook is borne out by e-mails the almanac has received in recent days from readers who have spotted signs of nature they say point to a rough winter, Geiger said. These folklore signs range from an abundance of acorns already on the ground to the frequency of fog in August.
The almanac is at odds with the National Weather Service, whose trends-based outlook calls for warmer than normal weather this winter over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O'Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The almanac and the weather service are in sync, however, in pointing to a chance of a drier winter in the Northwest.
O'Lenic wouldn't comment specifically on the almanac's ability to forecast the weather two years from now, but said it's generally impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance.
"Of course it's possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question," he said.
Geiger sticks to his guns, saying the almanac was on target in the 2008 edition when it said the Northeast and the Great Lakes would have a long, cold winter with lots of snow.
The almanac claims a circulation of about 3½ million. Most are sold to banks, insurance companies and other businesses that give them away. Other versions are sold by retailers in the U.S. and Canada.
Circulation has dropped in recent years, a reflection of a trend that affects many print publications. The almanac has been increasing emphasis on its Web site and also offers a half-hour program that airs weekly on about 90 percent of the nation's public television stations.
However, some aspects of the almanac never change. The 2009 retail edition has the usual mix of helpful hints, recipes, gardening tips, riddles, anecdotes, corny jokes and inspirational messages.
If there's a theme to this year's almanac, it's environmental awareness, frugality and living a sustainable life. There are articles on water conservation, gas-sipping motor scooters, natural cures and preventions for colds and other illnesses, and on growing food without a yard.
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On the Net:
Almanac: http://www.farmersalmanac.com/
Community Discussion
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Wow - No one is commenting that this Almanac forecast contradicts the "consensus" regarding Global Warming.
And it even states - "O'Lenic wouldn't comment specifically on the almanac's ability to forecast the weather two years from now, but said it's generally impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance."
Huh? Impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance? I thought "scientists" were predicting 100 years from now.
Oh, that's right, they use computers, not sun activity, planet position and tidal/moon relationships.
Regardless, colder winter, more snow, more ice for polar bears. Good, now start winterizing those homes people.
As usual MrGreen, you're confusing "weather" with "climate." Big difference.
No - I'm sorry, but weather and climate are the same thing. Climate is the AVERAGE of weather. Both come from the same science. In fact - dictionaries define Climate as the "averages of weather" - go ahead, look it up.
For example - if you ride a bicycle 10 mph for one mile, that's weather. But if you ride your bike 10 mph over 100 miles, that's climate. Averages, that's all - same science, that's is why YOU are confused.
"Climate is the average weather in a location over a long period of time."
http://weathereye.kgan.com/cadet/climate...
does global warming mean that Hell will never freeze over?
lol, nice (What MrGreen says makes perfect sense, to an educated person)
I wish it were cold like in the 80's- we'd see allot of riff-raff and "talkers" go back to where they belong, I took the cold for granted because when it started getting warmer I saw droves of "yippies" (that is, "yuppies" trying to disguise themselves as "hippies".) move up here and immediately start to complain and make unnecessary trouble because of cabin fever or something, I don't know.
What I do know is that the colder average winter temperatures seemed to hold the shivering, scared, whiners at bay.
And let's not forget, Al Gore tells us that Global Warming will cause "milder winters and warmer nights" not necessarily "hotter summers and days", especially in the "arctic regions". Huh?! So, where was the "mild" winter last year? And supposedly a 200 year database(farmers) predicts another colder-than-normal winter. Al Gore - I say "hooey!"
I say Mr. Gore should move up here for himself for a while, maybe buy a third house. And then try out solar, off-the-grid living in the winter at -40F below, while driving a Prius. BRRR!!
LostAlaskan, you have issues. Lots of anger management classes may help.
then i should join lostalaskan in those classes, but i agree with that person quite a bit.
The DNM only printed this article to see if the same people would argue again...this time over the weather of all things LOL
hmm, where do you get the "anger" from?
I don't feel "anger" at most people such as I have described, it's more like mild discomfort accompanied with occasional bouts of nausea and confusion.
LostAlaskan: You just sound like a curmudgeon to me. Nothing wrong with that.
Now, who are you folks gonna believe? Al Gore or the Farmers' Almanac?
Because you're either with the Farmers' Almanac or against the Farmers' Almanac.
Well, my Ouija Board says that it'll be balmy and 56 degrees above zero, fahrenheit, for the bulk of the winter, with the exception of two days in January.
It also told me that all of those folks who built basements in the flood plain shouldn't be permitted to borrow any more money (especially those with forestry, geology, hydrology, & physics backgrounds), and that we'll be flooding again next year...
Oh yeah, it also said that I'll get another moose this year too..
Ok folks, we did this once before and I also suspect that this article may just be to get some to shake off the tinfoil hat and get their fingers on the keyboard.
No one can predict the weather 100 years from now. Even trying to predict climate out that far is more guess than science.
What we do know is that the Northern Hemisphere has been warming for the last 500 years. The past 100 years of that seems to be accelerated and is faster than natural models would predict. The best guess is that we are in a natural waming cycle with some help from human sources, moderated by pelagic carbon absorption.
Decadal cycles in the Pacific are beter understood and may allow multi-year forcasts with more predictability.
Of course the model could be wrong or we might be arbitrarily looking at a statistically insignificant time period or committing some other error that we are too ignorant to even understand.
The Farmer's almanac is right about 2/3 of the time, slightly better than a coin toss. Not a bad record from a climatology standpoint but a little under the mark for a weatherman.
BTW - the Prius works great at -40. The motor fires right up. You don't get the phenomenal mileage though because the engine runs all the time to produce heat.
Research your Prius. All of it.
I suggest a Yaris.
"Huh?! So, where was the "mild" winter last year?"
it was mild.
if you take the average monthly temperature from October 1 to March 31 and divide by 6, you get a +2.2F departure from average.
http://vp.accuweather.com/vantagepoint/w...
by the way, we are several years into "solar min," the trough of 11-year sunspot activity and solar output.
"Yippies." That's good. I see a lot of psuedo hippies too.
I'm with Lost.
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